IRAN'S LEB GAME
HEZ HUMILIATES GOV'T AND US
May 19, 2008
'RWANDA on the Mediterranean!"
That's how some Bei rut residents described Lebanon's prospects last week, as Hezbollah gunmen went on the rampage in Sunni Muslim districts and Druze villages in nearby mountains. They feared that the move would trigger a religious version of the 1990s Hutu-Tutsi conflict.
By the end of the week, however, those fears were somewhat alleviated as all factions decided not to cross the Rubicon. Hezbollah withdrew from the areas captured, while Sunni Muslims, Christians and the Druze who back the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora kept whatever armed force they had out of sight.
What had looked like the start of a coup d'etat by Hezbollah ended as a mere coup de force by the Shiite militia. By the weekend, representatives from all Lebanese communities were in Doha, Qatar, to acknowledge another stalemate.
So, why did Hezbollah make the move, and why did it decide to change gears midway?
The trigger was the government's decision to remove a pro-Hezbollah officer from his position at Beirut Airport and to open an investigation into the parallel communications network that Iran is building for Hezbollah without Lebanese-government authorization.
Hezbollah saw the decisions as the start of a plan to disarm the militia in accordance with two United Nations Security Council resolutions. Hezbollah has rejected both resolutions and vowed to fight anyone trying to disarm it.
By forcing the government to suspend both decisions, Hezbollah not only won a major political victory, but also made it clear it could impose its will by force. It also destroyed part of its rivals' media assets and political structures.
Muhammad Khatami, Iran's former president, has said there "would be no Lebanon without Hezbollah." The last few days' events have showed this wasn't an empty boast.
Backed by Iran and Syria, Hezbollah pushed Lebanon to the edge of destruction to preserve its position as a state within the Lebanese state.
As far as Hezbollah is concerned, there are only two ways out of the current crisis: the creation of a government dominated and protected by Hezbollah, something that other Lebanese communities wouldn't accept; or the de facto acceptance of a dual reality - the existence side-by-side of a formal Lebanese state and a Hezbollah state-like structure alongside it.
